sevendayweekender – Valentine’s Day chocolates are getting more expensive, and lovebirds may need to spend more on their sweet treats this year. Candy remains the most popular Valentine’s Day gift, surpassing flowers, cards, and jewelry, according to the National Retail Federation. Additionally, chocolate makes up more than half of all confectionery sales, the National Confectioners Association reports.
However, chocolate makers have raised prices to compensate for record-high cocoa costs, according to company officials and agricultural economists.
How Much More Will Consumers Pay?
David Branch, a commodities analyst at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, estimates that chocolate prices are up 10% to 20% compared to last year.
- A king-size two-pack of Reese’s hearts rose 13%, from $2.29 to $2.59.
- A 10.8-ounce bag of Hershey’s Kisses increased 12%, from $4.89 to $5.49.
- U.S. chocolate prices now range from $3.08 to $5.72 per pound, according to Selina Wamucii, a market research firm.
As costs continue rising, chocolate lovers may need to brace for even higher prices in the future.
Cocoa Prices Surge as Global Supply Shrinks
Cocoa is the essential ingredient in chocolate, and its scarcity is driving prices to record highs. According to JPMorgan, West Africa—mainly Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—produces 80% of the world’s cocoa supply. However, a global shortage caused by climate change, disease, and extreme weather has severely impacted production since early 2024.
Weather Disruptions Fuel Historic Cocoa Price Spikes
JPMorgan reports that bad weather has “ravaged” cocoa crops in West Africa, leading to an ongoing supply crisis. Heavy rainfall followed by prolonged dry seasons has stressed cocoa plants, making it difficult for farmers to meet global demand.
As a result, cocoa prices have skyrocketed. On December 18, cocoa reached a record high of nearly $13,000 per metric ton. According to David Branch of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. This marks a staggering 140% increase from January 2024, when cocoa averaged $4,500 per metric ton.
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Largest Supply Deficit in 60 Years
The cocoa supply deficit—the gap between demand and available supply—rose to 478,000 metric tons in 2024, the highest deficit in six decades, Branch reported.
With demand for chocolate remaining strong and supply struggling to recover, experts predict continued price increases, making cocoa one of the most expensive commodities in the global market today.
Chocolate Prices Surge as Cocoa Costs Pressure Industry Profits
The rising cost of cocoa has forced chocolate manufacturers to increase prices, putting pressure on both company profits and consumer demand, experts report.
Major chocolate brands are already adjusting their financial outlooks due to record-high prices. Hershey recently acknowledged that elevated costs have contributed to lower-than-expected profit forecasts for 2025. Similarly, Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli stated in a January 2024 sales report that it has been forced to raise prices and expects to do so again in 2025.
Chocolate Inflation Reaches Unprecedented Levels
According to the producer price index, the wholesale price of chocolate and confectionery products rose by over 30% in January 2025, marking a fivefold increase in the inflation rate compared to a year earlier.
“We see the chocolate market experiencing inflation at levels rarely seen in recent history,” said Celine Pannuti, head of European staples and beverages at JPMorgan. She predicts that consumer chocolate prices will rise by a double-digit percentage in the low teens throughout 2025.
Rising Prices Drive Down Consumer Demand
Major chocolate producers, including Mondelez and Barry Callebaut, have indicated that further price increases are likely due to continued cocoa price surges. However, higher costs are already affecting demand.
Peter Vanneste, CFO of Barry Callebaut, acknowledged that the recent spike in cocoa prices has led to reduced chocolate consumption. The International Cocoa Organization reported a decline in Q4 2024 cocoa grindings, signaling that global demand is weakening.
Despite consumers spending $21.4 billion on chocolate in the year ending August 2024 (a 1.5% increase from the previous year), total sales volume declined by 3%, according to the National Confectioners Association.
“The market is in turmoil and will likely remain unstable throughout the cocoa season,” said David Branch of Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
